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This talk will describe the work of the CPN Pre-Impact Baselines Working Group to leverage the wealth of paleoecological and historical ecological data to facilitate estimation of pre-impact species distribution baselines. Species conservation has long focused on preventing human-driven extinctions, and over the past 50 years conservation success has been measured using changes in species’ extinction risk. However, recently calls have been made for a parallel focus on species recovery, and on developing metrics with which to assess its achievement. This call to action within the conservation community is fuelled in part by the recognition that baselines of species abundance and distribution have shifted dramatically across human generations with globally detectable human impacts on ecosystems beginning at least several thousand years ago. While assessment of extinction risk generally only considers species’ change over the past few decades, assessment of recovery requires considering change over centuries to millennia. This requires identifying the baseline status at the time when humans first became a major factor influencing the abundance and distribution of a species. Two new frameworks for considering conservation status relative to a species’ pre-impact baseline have been recently released: EPOCH (Evaluation of POpulation CHange), and the IUCN Green Status of Species. These frameworks have been lauded as moving conservation in a much-needed direction, but there is also concern about whether these methods will be applicable to any but a few well-known, charismatic species. Using a combination of modelling approaches, we are working to estimate species pre-impact distributions in a way that is accessible to conservation practitioners, helping to unshift the baseline and bring species recovery into the mainstream. 

Madagascar experienced a major faunal turnover near the end of the first millenium CE that particularly affected terrestrial, large-bodied vertebrate species. Teasing apart the relative impacts of people and climate on this event requires a focus on regional records with good chronological control. These records may document coeval changes in rainfall, faunal composition, and human activities. Here we present new paleontological and paleoclimatological data from southwestern Madagascar, the driest part of the island today. We collected over 1500 subfossil bones from deposits at a coastal site called Antsirafaly and from both flooded and dry cave deposits at Tsimanampesotse National Park. We built a chronology of Late Holocene changes in faunal assemblages based on 65 radiocarbon-dated specimens and subfossil associations. We collected stalagmites primarily within Tsimanampesotse but also at two additional locations in southern Madagascar. These provided information regarding hydroclimate variability over the past 120,000 years. Prior research has supported a primary role for drought (rather than humans) in triggering faunal turnover at Tsimanampesotse. This is based on evidence of: (1) a large freshwater ecosystem west of what is now the hypersaline Lake Tsimanampesotse, which supported freshwater mollusks and waterfowl (including animals that could not survive on resources offered by the hypersaline lake today); (2) abundant now-extinct terrestrial vertebrates; (3) regional decline or disappearance of certain tree species; and (4) scant local human presence. Our new data allow us to document the hydroclimate of the subarid southwest during the Holocene, as well as shifts in faunal composition (including local extirpations, large-vertebrate population collapse, and the appearance of introduced species). These records affirm that climate alone cannot have produced the observed vertebrate turnover in the southwest. Human activity, including the introduction of cattle, as well as associated changes in habitat exploitation, also played an important role.